Russia weakened in Syria, bolsters Mali presence in response
Reports that the new Syrian authorities have cancelled the operating contract for the Tartus port and Russia has already begun withdrawing equipment could have repercussions for Russia’s presence in Africa.
On 19 January, the Syrian newspaper Al-Watan reported that the new Syrian authorities have cancelled a contract awarded in 2019 to STG Stroytransgaz for the management of the port in Tartus. The reason cited for the decision was the company’s failure to deliver on promises to invest in the port and develop its infrastructure. Reuters cited three of its own sources as confirming the report.
The official reaction to the news has been muted on both sides. Both Syrian government spokespeople and Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov refused to comment, with Peskov deferring the question to the Russian Defence Ministry. Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov characterised it as a “technical issue” and said it wasn’t discussed at a meeting with new Syrian leader Ahmed al-Sharaa on 28 January. Talks are ongoing amid reports that the Syrian authorities are seeking compensation and support for efforts to rebuild the country. Syria owes Russia approximately $8 billion, and some kind of debt relief is likely to be one of the new regime's goals. Peskov again refused to comment.
The contract is separate from the agreement that governs Russia’s naval base at Tartus.* The latter document was approved by President Putin in 2017 and is supposed to last 49 years. However, the fall of Bashar al-Assad in December 2024 has prompted uncertainty over Russia’s position in the country. Speculation over whether Russia will be able to reach an understanding with the new Syrian authorities has been widespread ever since.
Nevertheless, amid the uncertainty, Russia has reportedly been concentrating equipment and personnel from across the country at its two main facilities, Tartus and the Hmeimem Air base. After news of the cancelled port agreement broke, the BBC published an article on renewed activity at Tartus. It used satellite imagery to show that two sanctioned Russian ships, Sparta and Sparta II, have docked there — the first naval vessels to do so since December. Dozens of military vehicles and other equipment appear to be ready for withdrawal. Meduza subsequently reported that most of the equipment has already been withdrawn and Sparta II has left the port, with the remainder being loaded onto Sparta.
Opinions on the strategic value of Tartus differ. Historically, the base — which dates from the Soviet period — was never a major Russian facility. However, Russia has been bolstering its presence since at least 2012, with efforts accelerating as Russia underwrote the al-Assad regime, and it is Russia’s only Mediterranean refuelling point. Russia’s 2022 Maritime Doctrine emphasised the base’s importance for the country’s presence in the Mediterranean. Yet, as Derek Averre writes in Russian strategy in the Middle East and North Africa, its true strategic value is open to question, particularly given that a planned new aircraft carrier may not come into service before 2030. Nevertheless, Tartus serves both as a symbol of Russia’s military power and a logistics hub for Russian private military company operations in Africa. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov has sought to assuage concerns that Russia is losing its position in the Middle East, accusing the media of “wishful thinking.”
Any changes to Russia’s position in Syria naturally prompts questions about the implications for PMCs in Africa. Libya is arguably a viable alternative for logistical support for PMC operations. In a recent podcast, Hanna Notte and Natasha Hall both highlighted efforts to bolster Russia's facilities in the country, as well as some of the counterweights to those efforts. DefenceWeb, meanwhile, has reported that Russia has transferred 100 military vehicles to Mali — something it linked directly to developments in Mali.
- I think this is correct: a lot of media reporting treats them as one and the same deal, but the details don’t align. If you know better, please let me know!