Giustozzi, Antonio and David Lewis
2024
After Prigozhin: Does Wagner Group have a future?
The Russia Program at George Washington University: Academic Policy Paper Series No. 1
In the immediate aftermath of Wagner’s mutiny in June 2023 and even more so after Yevgeny Prigozhin’s death two months later in August, plenty of speculation was offered concerning the fate of the group. Wagner’s role in Ukraine effectively ended with the mutiny, but its large‐scale operations in Syria, Mali and the Central African Republic (CAR), alongside several smaller‐scale ones, mostly in other African countries, had come to represent one of the most visible faces of Russian foreign policy. Since 2023, the Russian state has struggled to replace Wagner while retaining the flexibility and effectiveness of its operations on the ground. In this paper, we examine the shifts in Russian policy in Syria, Mali and the CAR, based on a series of interviews with Wagner personnel and other informed interlocutors. We build on the extensive literature that has emerged analyzing Prigozhin's legacy and Wagner's future, and what it might all mean for Russia at home and abroad.