Cronin (2006) ‘How al-Qaida Ends.’
Citation: Cronin, Audrey Kurth (2006) ‘How al-Qaida Ends: The Decline and Demise of Terrorist Groups,’ International Security, 31:1, pp. 1-78.
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Writing in 2006 (p8), Cronin noted a tendency for terrorism studies to be highly event driven; for researchers to be unaware of earlier work on the subject; and for there to be a lack of reflection on what we can learn from historical cases, once they cease to be a pressing security threat. She argued that it is therefore unsurprising that “the question of how terrorist groups decline is insufficiently studied.”
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[The seven broad explanations are not mutually exclusive, and conflate reasons for collapse with specific processes through which they collapse. Offers examples of when each occurs, but doesn’t explain when one or other is likely to have an impact]
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Notes:
Cronin (2006): Talks about life cycles (emergence, escalation, de-escalation).
Cronin (2006:17-18): “There are at least seven broad explanations for, or critical elements in, the decline and ending of terrorist groups in the modern era: (1) capture or killing of the leader, (2) failure to transition to the next generation, (3) achievement of the group’s aims, (4) transition to a legitimate political process, (5) undermining of popular support, (6) repression, and (7) transition from terrorism to other forms of violence.