Bakke, Cunningham and Seymour (2012) ‘Plague of Initials’
Bakke, Kristin M., Kathleen Gallagher Cunningham and Lee J.M. Seymour. 2012. “A Plague of Initials: Fragmentation, Cohesion, and Infighting in Civil Wars.” Perspectives on Politics 10 (2): 265-283.
Movements used as broad category for all those engaged in a resistance campaign; movements, in turn, are comprised of organisations. A movement is defined (2012:266) by its “appeals to a shared identity and the sense of common fate this engenders; it does not necessarily have common interests and goals.
Groups used in a relatively loosely defined way, but generally portrayed as the community or constituency from which movements emerge. (2012:267): “a movement represents an underlying group in whose name and interest it – and its constituent organizations – claims to act. Groups can be analysed through alliances, organisations, networks, and individuals.
The number of organisations, their degree of institutionalisation, and the distribution of power between them are the critical dimensions for assessing movement fragmentation. Fragmentation operates on a scale from unified to fragmented.
(2012:268): “Fragmented movements differ according to whether they are divided between a few or many competing organizations, whereas cohesive groups unite in one organization.” Splintering is common.
(2012:268): “Measuring the number of organizations entails identifying organizations within the broader movement that recognize no higher command authority, have their own leadership and organizational structure (including resources and memberships), and actively make demands related to the group’s collective aims or status. The demands of different organizations do not need to be identical, and can even to some degree conflict with one another. […] The existence of multiple organizations within the same movement can suggest underlying disagreements over collective interests or the means to achieve them. The link between these organizations (and the logic behind linking them together in a movement) is that all are mobilized around a collective identity in the pursuit of interests particular to this identity and the shared interests and common fate it engenders.”
Factors influencing factionalism: Ideology; disagreements over strategy; discipline and organisational control mechanisms; leadership rivalries; counter-insurgent strategies (divide-and-rule or decapitation); scale of conflict; preferences of external patrons.
(2012:269): Institutions establish “the rules of the game in a society.” Rules may be formal or informal, with the latter including norms, routines, customs, and traditions. Degree of institutionalisation impacts the coordination between actors.
(2012:271): Power determined by material resources (money, manpower, weapons) and ideational factors (legitimacy, popular support, public opinion, leadership). Distribution of power impacted by internal movement factors (intragroup politics, access to resources, organisational efficiency, cohesion, alliances), external factors (outside support, government efforts to incentivise defection), and institutionalisation and number of organisations.