Avksentyev and Gritsenko (2016) ‘Etnopoliticheskaya situatsiya na Severnom Kavkaze.’
Citation: Avksentyev, V.A. and Gritsenko, G.D. (2016) ‘Etnopoliticheskaya situatsiya na Severnom Kavkaze: Ekspertnaya otsenka,’ Sotsiologicheskiye issledovaniye, 1, pp. 92-99.
Time Period Covered:
Theory, Research Question, Hypothesis:
Relationship to Other Research/Ideas Contested/Noted Gaps:
Concepts and Definitions:
Method:
First round of surveys conducted in 2006-2007. Second conducted in 2014. Unclear if there were rounds in between. 102 people interviewed, presumably across all years. Selected on the basis of research activity and publications on conflict and ethnopolitics, experience of analytic, expert or governance work, or membership of one of the region’s ethnic groups.
Primary/Original Data:
Expert interviews conducted between 2006 and 2014.
Argument/Conclusion:
Limitations/Flaws:
Abstract:
На основании экспертных опросов 2006 и 2014гг. анализируется динамика этнополитической ситуации на Северном Кавказе и делается прогноз относительно уровня напряженности в регионе до 2020г. Обосновывается неизбежность обострения кризисных процессов в ближайшем будущем вследствие негативного влияния коррупции, ухудшения социально-экономического положения людей, радикализации религии. Учитывая “живучесть” указанных факторов и сложную внешнеполитическую ситуацию, в которой находится Россия, авторы высказываются в пользу умеренно-негативного сцена- рия развития Северо-Кавказского федерального округа (СКФО) как наиболее вероятного.
Notes:
Avksentyev and Gritsenko (2016:93): Argue that the adoption of the Strategy for the Socio-Economic Development of the North Caucasus Federal Okrug by 2025, adopted in 2012, was a mistake in that it ignored the actual conditions in the North Caucasus: There was never likely to be significant investment in a region still experiencing stability; few of the projects were transregional and capable of uniting republics of region with each other or external areas.
Avksentyev and Gritsenko (2016:94): 2014 was the only year of last five when the general assessment by surveyed experts wasn’t regarded as highly strained, and in 2011 and 2012 it was regarded as critically strained. In 2006, researchers anticipated a worsening of the situation; these forecasts were fully justified, whereas those for 2011-2012 were only partially so, according to Kavkazskiy Uzel data.